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The White House has sought to reset ties with New Delhi following Trump’s steep tariffs on Indian imports earlier this year over its oil purchases. “The highest level of strategic cooperation is possible with India, which the president sees as a critical counterweight to China and a key ally in the Indo-Pacific and beyond,” the official said.

Washington and New Delhi have built one of the most successful strategic partnerships in the post–Cold War era over the last two decades. But the relationship has now hit one of its lowest points as trust between the two sides is fast unravelling over tariffs, oil, and an increasingly realignment international system.

“We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years — that everybody worked very hard to build, including the president in his first term — have just come completely unraveled. The trust is gone,” said Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Relations hit a breaking point over Trump’s tariffs on India for its continued purchases of Russian crude oil despite the war in Ukraine. The tariff, which applies to some $9 billion worth of Indian goods, began at 25 percent in June and is set to increase to 50 percent on August 27. The move, rather than drive India to rethink its buying, only pushed it further to Moscow and even Beijing.

India’s national security adviser, foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi have all made trips to Russia and each other’s countries in recent weeks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected to visit China next month for his first trip there in more than seven years. Putin has also invited Modi to Moscow before the end of the year. These are not just empty gestures, according to observers.

“The Modi government has been very calculated in managing its response, but Indian public opinion has turned decidedly against what it sees as a non-stop stream of U.S. interference in its sovereign decisions,” Feigenbaum told War on the Rocks.

Although India paused Russian oil imports at the start of the war, state-run refiners resumed them after discounts on Russian crude of six to seven percent. Oil now makes up 35 percent of India’s crude imports from Russia, a more than tenfold increase over the 0.2 percent recorded before the Ukraine conflict. In turn, Moscow is showing signs of expanding its pitch. “We will continue to ship crude oil and oil products, thermal and coking coal to India,” Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said last week. Moscow also sees “potential for the export of Russian LNG.”

Not Just Tariffs

Indian actions are not entirely performative, according to analysts, and the U.S. tariffs on India are not the only driver of the realignment. “We’ve seen indications for almost a year of India wanting to ease tensions with China and strengthen relations, mainly for economic reasons. But the Trump administration’s policies have made India want to move even more quickly,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Washington-based Wilson Center.

Feigenbaum agreed, saying that “India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia — and those parts are not performative.” Indeed, India had already begun to wean itself off of Russian arms before the Ukraine war, buying more weapons from the United States, France, and Israel. But with the Russian invasion, energy trade with Moscow has ramped up, seemingly vindicating the Indian view that “the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can — because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what,” said Kugelman.

India is also fast reaping domestic political gains from its tough talk. Modi has been unabashed in drawing attention to his leadership and decision-making. He has also made clear that he will not sacrifice the livelihoods of the country’s farmers, small businesses, and young job-seekers, a point of some import at home. “India already bent over backward to the U.S. on many issues, including lowering tariffs and repatriating Indian workers from the U.S.,” Kugelman recalled. “Because of those concessions, India needs to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend. This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down.”

In the U.S., some are warning that India’s purchases of Russian oil are “deeply corrosive” to the relationship. “Indian imports are opportunistic, hence the time is now to hit India where it hurts — its access to U.S. markets — even as it seeks to cut off the financial lifeline it has extended to Russia’s war effort,” former White House trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Financial Times last month.

Both sides are also remembering more rosy pasts. At the height of tensions over the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear deal in 2008, the two countries found ways to compartmentalize the disagreement so it did not interfere with cooperation on other fronts, something not possible now. “Back then, India was leveraging its partnership with the U.S. to signal to then-foe China that it had options,” Feigenbaum told War on the Rocks. “Now they’re working with the Chinese to signal Washington rather than the other way around.”

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has long viewed India as a critical democratic counterweight to China in its Indo-Pacific strategy under Obama, Trump, and Biden. But as the latest bout of tensions is beginning to seep into defense and intelligence sharing, that could also be under threat.

“Countering China has been the glue binding this relationship,” Kugelman said. “But if the U.S.–India relationship continues this free fall, it will be very difficult to sustain.”